Strategies

Three simple, honestly documented strategies. No ML theater — every entry/exit rule is readable in one file, and every strategy's meta.edge / meta.failureModes is a live object on the class, not a comment that can drift from the code.

launch-sniper

src/strategies/launch-sniper.ts · quote token: WETH

Edge hypothesis: the first minutes after a NOXA instant-listing are the most information-rich and most volatile window a memecoin ever has. A disciplined buyer who only touches round-trippable, non-deployer-heavy launches, and exits mechanically instead of falling in love, harvests a slice of that opening volatility. The edge is speed + discipline, not prediction.

Entry filters (all must clear)

Liquid route exists — a real QuoterV2 quote must resolve; un-graduated Odyssey bonding-curve tokens have no Uniswap pool yet and are skipped.
Round-trip retention — buy then immediately quote a sell-back; a honeypot or thin pool that loses more than maxRoundTripLossPct (default 35%) of value is rejected.
Deployer concentration — the launching wallet must hold under maxDeployerPct (default 15%) of total supply.
Freshness — only launches seen within maxLaunchAgeSeconds (default 5 min) are considered.

Exits (mechanical, first match wins)

Take-profit: takeProfitPct (default +60%)
Stop-loss: stopLossPct (default −35%)
Time exit: maxHoldSeconds (default 30 min), regardless of PnL

Failure modes

Most new launches trend to zero — the stop loss fires often; profitability depends on winners covering losers.
Honeypots can enable a sell tax after entry — the entry-time round-trip check cannot see that.
Odyssey bonding-curve tokens are skipped pre-graduation — this is effectively a NOXA sniper.
Paper fills use the QuoterV2 mid; live, faster bots win the best fills and you eat worse slippage.

momentum

src/strategies/momentum.ts · quote token: USDG

Edge hypothesis: a token that has already graduated to a locked Uniswap v3 pool survived the highest-mortality phase. A subsequent breakout — price up sharply over a short lookback — reflects real incoming demand rather than launch-day noise, and trend- following it with a trailing stop captures the middle of the move while giving back only the tail.

Entry

Price gain over lookbackSamples ticks (default 6) exceeds breakoutPct (default 15%) → buy entryUsdg (default $10) worth.

Exits

Trailing stop: trailingStopPct (default 20%) off the post-entry peak
Time exit: maxHoldSeconds (default 60 min)

Failure modes

Breakouts on illiquid tokens are trivially fakeable by one wallet round-tripping the pool — this is a price-only signal with no depth check.
Trailing stops whipsaw in choppy markets — expect a string of small losses between real trends.
Discovery scans a bounded block lookback; a breakout on a token outside that window is missed until the next pass.
No edge in a flat or declining market — this is a trend-only strategy by design.

premium-watch

src/strategies/premium-watch.ts · quote token: USDG · alerts-only by default

Edge hypothesis: Stock Token pools are much thinner than the underlying equity market, so DEX price can drift from the Chainlink oracle when flow is one-sided. If the drift is a liquidity artifact, buying the discount and later selling back at fair captures the reversion as the pool re-equilibrates.

Trading is gated, on purpose. Stock Tokens are tokenized debt securities (issuer: Robinhood Assets (Jersey) Ltd) and may not be offered to US/Canada/UK/Switzerland persons. This strategy trades convergence only when both enableTrading: true in its params and HOOD_STOCK_TOKEN_ELIGIBLE=true in the environment. Missing either keeps it strictly alerts-only, which is the default and the recommended mode. Displaying spread data and alerting are never gated.

Signal

Spread = (dexPrice - oracle) / oracle, in bps. Alerts when |spread| >= alertThresholdBps (default 50bps). Trades a discount (DEX cheap) when spread <= -tradeThresholdBps (default 150bps) — only in eligible+opted-in configuration.

Exits

Convergence: spread reverts within exitThresholdBps (default 20bps)
Time exit: maxHoldSeconds (default 2h)

Failure modes

A premium/discount can be correct — DEX price may reflect information the ≤24h Chainlink heartbeat hasn't caught up to yet; fading it then loses on purpose.
Stock Token pools are thin; the probe price doesn't reflect real trade-size slippage, and the trade itself moves the spread being arbitraged.
No shorting primitive exists — only discounts are ever tradeable; premiums are alert-only by construction, not by choice.
Chainlink staleness (weekend gap, feed outage) can masquerade as a discount when the oracle, not the pool, is stale.